Patrick Brandt

Professor of Political Science
Tags: Political Science Social Data Analytics and Research Political Economy

Professional Preparation

Ph.D. - Political Science
Indiana University - 2001
M.S. - Mathematical Methods in Social Sciences
Northwestern University, - 1997
A.B. - Government
College of William and Mary, Williamsburg - 1994

Research Areas

Research Interests

My research on political and social dynamics focuses on the development and application of time series models to forecast international relations, to explicate relationships among public opinion, economic policy and the economy, and to explain patterns of conflict and terrorism. The main time series models employed in this research involve Bayesian statistics, multiple equation or vector autoregression models, methods for producing and evaluating the quality of forecasts, the derivation of new models for time series of counts, and modeling structural change and endogenous shifts in data over time.

This research agenda has been funded by the National Science Foundation and the Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE)

Publications

Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2012. \A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model" Political Analysis. 20(3): 292{315. 2013 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2012. \A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model" Political Analysis. 20(3): 292-315. 2012 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman, and Philip A. Schrodt. 2011. Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Political Conliict" Conflict Management and Peace Science. 28(1): 41{64. 2011 - Publication
Mason, T. David, Patrick T. Brandt, Mehmet Gurses, and Jason Michael Quinn. 2011. When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace After Civil Wars" International Studies Perspectives. 12(2): 171{189. 2011 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2010. What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has it Changed? Are We Safer? Journal of Conflict Resolution 54(2): 214-236. 2010 - Publication
Sattler, Thomas, Patrick T. Brandt, and John R. Freeman. 2010. Democratic Accountability in Open Economies Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 5(1): 71-97. 2010 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. 2009. Modeling Macro Political Dynamics Political Analysis. 17(2): 113-142. 2009 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2009. Hostage Taking: Understanding Terrorism Event Dynamics Journal of Policy Modeling. 31(5): 758-778. 2009 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., T. David Mason, Mehmet Gurses, Nicolai Petrovsky and Dasha Radin. 2008. When and How the Fighting Stops: Explaining the Duration and Outcome of Civil Wars. Defence and Peace Economics. 19(6):415-434. 2008 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., Michael P. Colaresi and John R. Freeman. 2008. The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability and Credibility. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 52(3): 343-374. 2008 - Publication

Appointments

Associate Professor
University of Texas at Dallas [2010–Present]
Faculty Associate
University of Texas at Dallas [2007–Present]
Assistant Professor
University of Texas at Dallas [2005–2010]
Assistant Professor
University of North Texas [2001–2005]

Projects

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and The Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. Konstanz University, Konstanz, Germany
Bayesian Time Series
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. Society for Political Methodology, University of California, Davis, CA
It's a Dynamic Multivariate Uncertain World: Policy Evaluation in Political Science
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. New Methods Series. University Of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
Event Count Time Series Models
2010–2010 Brandt, Patrck T. Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Economic Policy, Political Accountability and the Room to Maneuver
2018–2018 Sattler, Thomas, Patrick T. Brandt and John R. Freeman. Sixth Conference on the Political Economy of International Finance (PEIF), Emory University and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's Americas Center, Atlanta, GA

Additional Information

Honors and other recognitions

Robert H. Durr Award, Midwest Political Science Association's prize for the best paper applying quantitative methods to a substantive problem at the 2006 meeting. Published as Sattler, Thomas, John R. Freeman and Patrick T. Brandt. 2008. Popular Sovereignty and the Room to Maneuver: A Search for a Causal Chain" Comparative Political Studies

Professional Memberships
  • American Political Science Association
  • Midwest Political Science Association
  • International Studies Association
  • Society for Political Methodology

News Articles

Study: Paying Terrorist Kidnappers Doesn't Pay Off for Countries
Paying ransoms to terrorist kidnappers may encourage more abductions and worsen the situation for others, according to new research from UT Dallas.

Countries that negotiated with terrorists to release hostages faced up to 87 percent more kidnappings than those that did not pay ransoms, according to the research, which was recently published in the European Journal of Political Economy.

“Every time you get one person back, and you did it by giving in, you’re going to have approximately another one taken. You’re essentially trading one for one,” said Dr. Todd Sandler, senior author of the study.

Funding

Development of a Technology for Real-Time Ex Ante Forecasting of Intra and International Con ict and Cooperation
$601,585 - National Science Foundation [2009–2011]
Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Post-9/11 Era
$130,000 - Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE), Department of Homeland Security [2009–2010]
Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Post-9/11 Era
$130,000 - Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE), Department of Homeland Security [2008–2009]
Bayesian Time Series Models for the Analysis of International Conflict
$312,334 - National Science Foundation [2004–2006]
Bayesian Time Series Models in Political Science
$4,200 - Research Initiation Grant, University of North Texas [2002–2003]