Patrick Brandt

Patrick Brandt

Professor of Political Science
 
972-883-4923
GR 2.802
Patrick Brandt's Webpage
Tags: Political Science Social Data Analytics and Research Political Economy

Professional Preparation

Ph.D. - Political Science
Indiana University - 2001
M.S. - Mathematical Methods in Social Sciences
Northwestern University, - 1997
A.B. - Government
College of William and Mary, Williamsburg - 1994

Research Areas

Research Interests

My research on political and social dynamics focuses on the development and application of time series models to forecast international relations, to explicate relationships among public opinion, economic policy and the economy, and to explain patterns of conflict and terrorism. The main time series models employed in this research involve Bayesian statistics, multiple equation or vector autoregression models, methods for producing and evaluating the quality of forecasts, the derivation of new models for time series of counts, and modeling structural change and endogenous shifts in data over time.

This research agenda has been funded by the National Science Foundation and the Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE)

Publications

Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2012. \A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model" Political Analysis. 20(3): 292{315. 2013 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2012. \A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model" Political Analysis. 20(3): 292-315. 2012 - Publication
Mason, T. David, Patrick T. Brandt, Mehmet Gurses, and Jason Michael Quinn. 2011. When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace After Civil Wars" International Studies Perspectives. 12(2): 171{189. 2011 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman, and Philip A. Schrodt. 2011. Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Political Conliict" Conflict Management and Peace Science. 28(1): 41{64. 2011 - Publication
Sattler, Thomas, Patrick T. Brandt, and John R. Freeman. 2010. Democratic Accountability in Open Economies Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 5(1): 71-97. 2010 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2010. What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has it Changed? Are We Safer? Journal of Conflict Resolution 54(2): 214-236. 2010 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2009. Hostage Taking: Understanding Terrorism Event Dynamics Journal of Policy Modeling. 31(5): 758-778. 2009 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. 2009. Modeling Macro Political Dynamics Political Analysis. 17(2): 113-142. 2009 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., T. David Mason, Mehmet Gurses, Nicolai Petrovsky and Dasha Radin. 2008. When and How the Fighting Stops: Explaining the Duration and Outcome of Civil Wars. Defence and Peace Economics. 19(6):415-434. 2008 - Publication
Sattler, Thomas, John R. Freeman and Patrick T. Brandt. 2008. Popular Sovereignty and the Room to Maneuver: A Search for a Causal Chain Comparative Political Studies. 41(9): 1212-1239. Erratum. 2009. Comparative Political Studies. 42(1): 125-131. Winner of the 2006 Midwest Political Science Association's Robert H. Durr Award for the best paper apply quantitative methods to a substantive problem. 2008 - Publication

Appointments

Associate Professor
University of Texas at Dallas [2010–Present]
Faculty Associate
University of Texas at Dallas [2007–Present]
Assistant Professor
University of Texas at Dallas [2005–2010]
Assistant Professor
University of North Texas [2001–2005]

Projects

Event Count Time Series Models
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. ITV series with students from the Universities of Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State. University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN
Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and The Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. Konstanz University, Konstanz, Germany
Modeling Macro Political Dynamics: The Pitfalls of Parsimony
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. College of William and Mary
Multiple Time Series Models
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. Two-day workshop on dynamic simultaneous equation, vector autoregression (VAR), and Bayesian VAR models. University of Texas, Dallas, Richardson, TX
It's a Dynamic Multivariate Uncertain World: Policy Evaluation in Political Science
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. New Methods Series. University Of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA

Additional Information

Professional Memberships
  • American Political Science Association
  • Midwest Political Science Association
  • International Studies Association
  • Society for Political Methodology
Honors and other recognitions

Robert H. Durr Award, Midwest Political Science Association's prize for the best paper applying quantitative methods to a substantive problem at the 2006 meeting. Published as Sattler, Thomas, John R. Freeman and Patrick T. Brandt. 2008. Popular Sovereignty and the Room to Maneuver: A Search for a Causal Chain" Comparative Political Studies

Awards and Fellowships
  • Research Fellow, Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, Fall 1999. John V. Gillespie Memorial Scholarship, Department of Political Science, Indiana University, Summer 1999.
  • Political Science Departmental Fellowship, Indiana University, 1994{1996.
  • Governor's Fellow, Governor's Commission on Government Reform, Richmond, Virginia, Summer 1994.
  • W. Warner Moss Prize, Department of Government, College of William and Mary, 1994.

News Articles

Study: Paying Terrorist Kidnappers Doesn't Pay Off for Countries
Study: Paying Terrorist Kidnappers Doesn't Pay Off for Countries Paying ransoms to terrorist kidnappers may encourage more abductions and worsen the situation for others, according to new research from UT Dallas.

Countries that negotiated with terrorists to release hostages faced up to 87 percent more kidnappings than those that did not pay ransoms, according to the research, which was recently published in the European Journal of Political Economy.

“Every time you get one person back, and you did it by giving in, you’re going to have approximately another one taken. You’re essentially trading one for one,” said Dr. Todd Sandler, senior author of the study.

Funding

Development of a Technology for Real-Time Ex Ante Forecasting of Intra and International Con ict and Cooperation
$601,585 - National Science Foundation [2009–2011]
Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Post-9/11 Era
$130,000 - Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE), Department of Homeland Security [2009–2010]
Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Post-9/11 Era
$130,000 - Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE), Department of Homeland Security [2008–2009]
Bayesian Time Series Models for the Analysis of International Conflict
$312,334 - National Science Foundation [2004–2006]
Bayesian Time Series Models in Political Science
$4,200 - Research Initiation Grant, University of North Texas [2002–2003]