Patrick Brandt

Professor - Economic Political and Policy
pxb054000@utdallas.edu
972-883-4923
GR2802
UTD Webpage
Tags: Political Science Social Data Analytics and Research Public Policy Political Economy

Professional Preparation

Ph.D. - Political Science
Indiana University - 2001
M.S. - Mathematical Methods in Social Sciences
Northwestern University, - 1997
A.B. - Government
College of William and Mary, Williamsburg - 1994

Research Areas

Research Interests

My research on political and social dynamics focuses on the development and application of time series models to forecast international relations, to explicate relationships among public opinion, economic policy and the economy, and to explain patterns of conflict and terrorism. The main time series models employed in this research involve Bayesian statistics, multiple equation or vector autoregression models, methods for producing and evaluating the quality of forecasts, the derivation of new models for time series of counts, and modeling structural change and endogenous shifts in data over time.

This research agenda has been funded by the National Science Foundation and the Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE)

Publications

Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2012. \A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model" Political Analysis. 20(3): 292{315. 2013 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2012. \A Bayesian Poisson Vector Autoregression Model" Political Analysis. 20(3): 292-315. 2012 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., John R. Freeman, and Philip A. Schrodt. 2011. Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Political Conliict" Conflict Management and Peace Science. 28(1): 41{64. 2011 - Publication
Mason, T. David, Patrick T. Brandt, Mehmet Gurses, and Jason Michael Quinn. 2011. When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace After Civil Wars" International Studies Perspectives. 12(2): 171{189. 2011 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2010. What Do Transnational Terrorists Target? Has it Changed? Are We Safer? Journal of Conflict Resolution 54(2): 214-236. 2010 - Publication
Sattler, Thomas, Patrick T. Brandt, and John R. Freeman. 2010. Democratic Accountability in Open Economies Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 5(1): 71-97. 2010 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. 2009. Modeling Macro Political Dynamics Political Analysis. 17(2): 113-142. 2009 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T. and Todd Sandler. 2009. Hostage Taking: Understanding Terrorism Event Dynamics Journal of Policy Modeling. 31(5): 758-778. 2009 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., T. David Mason, Mehmet Gurses, Nicolai Petrovsky and Dasha Radin. 2008. When and How the Fighting Stops: Explaining the Duration and Outcome of Civil Wars. Defence and Peace Economics. 19(6):415-434. 2008 - Publication
Brandt, Patrick T., Michael P. Colaresi and John R. Freeman. 2008. The Dynamics of Reciprocity, Accountability and Credibility. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 52(3): 343-374. 2008 - Publication

Appointments

Associate Professor
University of Texas at Dallas [2010–Present]
Faculty Associate
University of Texas at Dallas [2007–Present]
Assistant Professor
University of Texas at Dallas [2005–2010]
Assistant Professor
University of North Texas [2001–2005]

Projects

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and The Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. Konstanz University, Konstanz, Germany
Bayesian Time Series
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. Society for Political Methodology, University of California, Davis, CA
It's a Dynamic Multivariate Uncertain World: Policy Evaluation in Political Science
2018–2018 Brandt, Patrick T. and John R. Freeman. New Methods Series. University Of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
Event Count Time Series Models
2010–2010 Brandt, Patrck T. Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan
Economic Policy, Political Accountability and the Room to Maneuver
2018–2018 Sattler, Thomas, Patrick T. Brandt and John R. Freeman. Sixth Conference on the Political Economy of International Finance (PEIF), Emory University and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's Americas Center, Atlanta, GA

Additional Information

Personal Statement
  • Associate Professor, Political Science, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas, 2010-present.
  • Instructor, \Advanced Time Series Analysis", Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, August 2012. Two week workshop.
  • Instructor, \Advanced Bayesian Models for the Social Sciences", Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, Each August 2008{2011. One week workshop on Bayesian time series models.
  • Faculty Associate, Center for Global Collective Action, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas, 2007-present.
  • Assistant Professor, Political Science, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, Texas, 2005-2010.
  • Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of North Texas, Denton, Texas, 2001-2005.
  • Visiting Lecturer of American Politics and Methodology, Department of Political Science, IndianaUniversity, Bloomington, Indiana, 2000-2001.
Awards and Fellowships
  • Research Fellow, Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, Fall 1999. John V. Gillespie Memorial Scholarship, Department of Political Science, Indiana University, Summer 1999.
  • Political Science Departmental Fellowship, Indiana University, 1994{1996.
  • Governor's Fellow, Governor's Commission on Government Reform, Richmond, Virginia, Summer 1994.
  • W. Warner Moss Prize, Department of Government, College of William and Mary, 1994.
Profession activities and committees
  • Committee Member, 2013, Society for Political Methodology's Software Award Committee.
  • Associate Editor, Political Analysis. 2013-
  • Member, Editorial Board, International Interactions. 2011-present.
  • Member, Editorial Board, Journal of Conflict Resolution 2010-present.
  • Committee Member, 2010. Society for Political Methodology's Best Graduate Student Poster Award.
  • Committee Member, 2010. Midwest Political Science Association's Robert H. Durr Award best quantitative methods paper.
  • Instructor, Advanced Bayesian Models for the Social Sciences", Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research, University of Michigan, August 2008, 2009, 2010. One week workshop on Bayesian time series models.
  • Chair, John T. Williams Dissertation Prize in Political Methodology, Political Methodology Section, American Political Science Association. 2008-2009.
  • At-Large Council Member, Political Forecasting Group Section, American Political Science Association, 2008{2010.
  • Committee Member, Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology, Political Methodology Section, American Political Science Association. 2007.
  • Committee Member, John T. Williams Dissertation Prize in Political Methodology, Political Methodology Section, American Political Science Association. 2006.
  • American Political Science short course, "Event Count Time Series Models," September 1999, Atlanta, Georgia.
  • Reviewer: American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Journal of Political Science, American Political Science Review, American Politics Research, British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, Chapman & Hall / CRC, Conflict Management and Peace
  • Science, Defence and Peace Economics, Economics and Politics, Foreign Policy Analysis, International Interactions, International Studies Perspectives, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of
  • Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Politics, Journal of Spurious Correlation, Legislative Studies Quarterly, McGraw-Hill, National Science Foundation, Political Analysis,
  • Political Research Quarterly, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Sage Publications, Statistical Methodology.

News Articles

Study: Paying Terrorist Kidnappers Doesn't Pay Off for Countries
Paying ransoms to terrorist kidnappers may encourage more abductions and worsen the situation for others, according to new research from UT Dallas.

Countries that negotiated with terrorists to release hostages faced up to 87 percent more kidnappings than those that did not pay ransoms, according to the research, which was recently published in the European Journal of Political Economy.

“Every time you get one person back, and you did it by giving in, you’re going to have approximately another one taken. You’re essentially trading one for one,” said Dr. Todd Sandler, senior author of the study.

Funding

Development of a Technology for Real-Time Ex Ante Forecasting of Intra and International Con ict and Cooperation
$601,585 - National Science Foundation [2009–2011]
Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Post-9/11 Era
$130,000 - Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE), Department of Homeland Security [2009–2010]
Counterterrorism and Terrorism in the Post-9/11 Era
$130,000 - Center for Economic and Risk Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE), Department of Homeland Security [2008–2009]
Bayesian Time Series Models for the Analysis of International Conflict
$312,334 - National Science Foundation [2004–2006]
Bayesian Time Series Models in Political Science
$4,200 - Research Initiation Grant, University of North Texas [2002–2003]